Sunak should prepare for another disaster

In the upcoming local elections, there is only one potential silver lining for the Conservatives

May’s local elections – the campaign for which the Conservatives launched today – are likely to be a severe test indeed for Rishi Sunak. With support for the Tories slipping in the polls, he will be trying to defend one of Boris Johnson’s high watermarks. However, there may be some relief if, in many instances, Reform are not on the ballot paper.
There is some kind of local contest throughout England and Wales this May. Elections for local council seats are being held in 107 of the 285 councils in England outside London, with just over 2,600 seats at stake. London, meanwhile, will be electing its Mayor and London Assembly. Many a major urban conurbation outside of London, such as the West Midlands, Greater Manchester and Merseyside, will be electing a metro mayor too. Meanwhile most of England and all of Wales will be balloting for a Police and Crime Commissioner. 
With the exception of 38 of the local councils, all these elections are for positions that were last contested in May 2021. At that time, thanks to a boost to Conservative fortunes following the speedy rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, the party was six points ahead of Labour in the polls. In the local ballot boxes, it enjoyed a net gain of 13 councils and a little over 200 council seats – a rare accomplishment for an incumbent government. Indeed, the same day Boris Johnson won Hartlepool from Labour in a parliamentary by-election.
Now the picture is very, very different. At 23%, the Conservatives’ average rating in the polls is even lower than in the immediate wake of Liz Truss’ downfall. The party trails Labour by 21 points. It is also seemingly haemorrhaging support to Reform on 12%. 
True, not everyone votes in local elections in the same way as they would in a general election. The Liberal Democrats always perform better than their current national poll rating, while the Greens have become a more important force in local elections too.
However, the swing between one set of local elections and the next is typically similar to that in the polls. By the time of last year’s local elections, the polls were on average recording a 10% swing from Conservative to Labour since May 2021. The performance of the parties in the local ballot boxes was the equivalent of an 8% swing, only a little below that in the polls.
Now the polls are pointing to as much as a 13 point swing as compared with May 2021. So significant Conservative losses would seem inevitable.
A 10% swing in the Police & Crime Commissioner elections could see the Conservatives lose 10 of the 29 positions they currently hold. Despite his high personal profile, Andy Street, the Conservative Mayor in the West Midlands will have a difficult fight on his hands, while Ben Houchen will be reliant on retaining his very substantial personal vote in Tees Valley. The party could also record its worst ever result in over twenty years of London Assembly elections. Hopes that the Tory standard bearer for London Mayor, Susan Hall, could pose a serious challenge to the Labour incumbent, Sadiq Khan, have long since evaporated.
In the local council elections, in most cases (81 councils), only one-third of the seats are up for grabs. That makes a change of council control less likely, while in half of these councils Labour are already in control. But unfortunately for the Conservatives the councils where all the seats are up for grabs are disproportionately ones where the party is defending control. Although in these instances sometimes the seats at stake were last contested in the leaner years of 2022 or 2023, the party could still lose control of half or dozen or so of the 16 councils where it is currently in command.
There is one potential silver lining for the Conservatives: Reform have said they are not contesting the Police and Crime elections. It remains to be seen how many local council candidates the party is able to stand. Last year it contested just one in thirteen of the wards, winning just 0.5% of the vote. Mr Sunak will be hoping Reform largely sit out this election too – and that consequently their supporters opt to return to the Tory fold.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research. He is also co-host of the ‘Trendy’ podcast